Sunday, February 21, 2016

Fooled by Randomness: The Hidden Role of Chance in Life and in the Markets

“Probability is not a mere computation of odds on the dice or more complicated variants; it is the acceptance of the lack of certainty in our knowledge and the development of methods for dealing with our ignorance.”



 “Never ask a man if he is from Sparta: If he were, he would have let you know such an important fact - and if he were not, you could hurt his feelings.” 


 “When things go our way we reject the lack of certainty.” 



 “Realism is punishing. Probabilistic skepticism is worse.”


 “No matter how sophisticated our choices, how good we are at dominating the odds, randomness will have the last word.” 

Nassim Nicholas Taleb

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